Showing posts with label Hedge System Trading. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Hedge System Trading. Show all posts

About hedge - wikipedia

In finance, a hedge is an investment that is taken out specifically to reduce or cancel out the risk in another investment. Hedging is a strategy designed to minimize exposure to an unwanted business risk, while still allowing the business to profit from an investment activity. Typically, a hedger might invest in a security that he believes is under-priced relative to its "fair value" (for example a mortgage loan that he is then making), and combine this with a short sale of a related security or securities. Thus the hedger is indifferent to the movements of the market as a whole, and is interested only in the performance of the 'under-priced' security relative to the hedge. Holbrook Working, a pioneer in hedging theory, called this strategy "speculation in the basis,[1] where the basis is the difference between the hedge's theoretical value and its actual value (or between spot and futures prices in Working's time).


Some form of risk taking is inherent to any business activity. Some risks are considered to be "natural" to specific businesses, such as the risk of oil prices increasing or decreasing is natural to oil drilling and refining firms. Other forms of risk are not wanted, but cannot be avoided without hedging. Someone who has a shop, for example, expects to face natural risks such as the risk of competition, of poor or unpopular products, and so on. The risk of the shopkeeper's inventory being destroyed by fire is unwanted, however, and can be hedged via a fire insurance contract. Not all hedges are financial instruments: a producer that exports to another country, for example, may hedge its currency risk when selling by linking its expenses to the desired currency. Banks and other financial institutions use hedging to control their asset-liability mismatches, such as the maturity matches between long, fixed-rate loans and short-term (implicitly variable-rate) deposits.

Origins

The term is derived from the phrase "hedging your bets" used in gambling games such as roulette. The hedges on a roulette table are the lines between numbers or number groups. Placing a hedged bet is one where the chips lie across one or more hedges (i.e. on a line between two numbers or on a corner between three or four numbers). The bet then covers all the numbers involved at an appropriately reduced stake (e.g. 1/2, 1/3, 1/4).


The term gradually moved into common usage within English-speaking cultures and today covers a broad range of risk-reduction activities or conditions.
In the finance lending industry, the term "hedge loan" has come to mean a specific type of financial product based on the melioration of price fluctuation risk in a stock portfolio serving as collateral for a nonrecourse debt structured stock loan.

Example hedge

A stock trader believes that the stock price of Company A will rise over the next month, due to the company's new and efficient method of producing widgets. He wants to buy Company A shares to profit from their expected price increase. But Company A is part of the highly volatile widget industry. If the trader simply bought the shares based on his belief that the Company A shares were underpriced, the trade would be a speculation.

Since the trader is interested in the company, rather than the industry, he wants to hedge out the industry risk by short selling an equal value (number of shares × price) of the shares of Company A's direct competitor, Company B. If the trader were able to short sell an asset whose price had a mathematically defined relation with Company A's stock price (for example a call option on Company A shares) the trade might be essentially riskless and be called an arbitrage. But since some risk remains in the trade, it is said to be "hedged."
The first day the trader's portfolio is:
  • Long 1000 shares of Company A at $1 each
  • Short 500 shares of Company B at $2 each
(Notice that the trader has sold short the same value of shares.)
On the second day, a favorable news story about the widgets industry is published and the value of all widgets stock goes up. Company A, however, because it is a stronger company, goes up by 10%, while Company B goes up by just 5%:
  • Long 1000 shares of Company A at $1.10 each — $100 gain
  • Short 500 shares of Company B at $2.10 each — $50 loss
(In a short position, the investor loses money when the price goes up.)
The trader might regret the hedge on day two, since it reduced the profits on the Company A position. But on the third day, an unfavorable news story is published about the health effects of widgets, and all widgets stocks crash -- 50% is wiped off the value of the widgets industry in the course of a few hours. Nevertheless, since Company A is the better company, it suffers less than Company B:
Value of long position (Company A):
  • Day 1 — $1000
  • Day 2 — $1100
  • Day 3 — $550 => $450 loss
Value of short position (Company B):
  • Day 1 — -$1000
  • Day 2 — -$1050
  • Day 3 — -$525
Without the hedge, the trader would have lost $450. But the hedge - the short sale of Company B - gives a profit of $475, for a net profit of $25 during a dramatic market collapse.

Types of hedging

The example above is a "classic" sort of hedge, known in the industry as a "pairs trade" due to the trading on a pair of related securities. As investors became more sophisticated, along with the mathematical tools used to calculate values, known as models, the types of hedges have increased greatly.

Natural hedges

Many hedges do not involve exotic financial instruments or derivatives. A natural hedge is an investment that reduces the undesired risk by matching cash flows, i.e. revenues and expenses. For example, an exporter to the United States faces a risk of changes in the value of the U.S. dollar and chooses to open a production facility in that market to match its expected sales revenue to its cost structure. Another example is a company that opens a subsidiary in another country and borrows in the local currency to finance its operations, even though the local interest rate may be more expensive than in its home country: by matching the debt payments to expected revenues in the local currency, the parent company has reduced its foreign currency exposure.

Similarly, an oil producer may expect to receive its revenues in U.S. dollars, but faces costs in a different currency; it would be applying a natural hedge if it agreed to, for example, pay bonuses to employees in U.S. dollars.

One of the oldest means of hedging against risk is the purchase of insurance to protect against financial loss due to accidental property damage or loss, personal injury, or loss of life.

Categories of hedgeable risk

For the following categories of the risk, for exporters, that the value of their accounting currency will fall against the value of the importers, also known as volatility risk.
  • Interest rate risk – is the risk that the relative value of an interest-bearing asset, such as a loan or a bond, will worsen due to an interest rate increase. Interest rate risks can be hedged using fixed income instruments or interest rate swaps.
  • Equity – the risk, or sometimes reward, for those whose assets are equity holdings, that the value of the equity falls
  • Securities Lending - Hedged portfolio stock secured loan financing (see HedgeLoan) is a form of individual portfolio risk reduction that results typically in a limited recourse loan.
Futures contracts and forward contracts are a means of hedging against the risk of adverse market movements. These originally developed out of commodity markets in the nineteenth century, but over the last fifty years a huge global market developed in products to hedge financial market risk.

Hedging credit risk

Credit risk is the risk that money owing will not be paid by an obligor. Since credit risk is the natural business of banks, but an unwanted risk for commercial traders, naturally an early market developed between banks and traders: that involving selling obligations at a discounted rate. See for example forfeiting, bill of lading, or discounted bill.

Hedging currency risk

Currency hedging (also known as Foreign Exchange Risk hedging) is used both by financial investors to parse out the risks they encounter when investing abroad, as well as by non-financial actors in the global economy for whom multi-currency activities are a necessary evil rather than a desired state of exposure.

For example, labor costs are such that much of the simple commoditized manufacturing in the global economy today goes on in China and South-East Asia (Philippines, Vietnam, Indonesia, etc.). The cost benefit of moving manufacturing to outsource providers outweighs the uncertainties of doing business in foreign countries, so many businesses are moving manufacturing operations overseas. But the benefits of doing this have to be weighted also against currency risk.

If the price of manufacturing goods in another country is fixed in a currency other than the one that the finished goods will be sold for, there is the risk that changes in the values of each currency will reduce profit or produce a loss. Currency hedging is akin to insurance that limits the impact of foreign exchange risk.

Currency hedging is not always available, but is readily found at least in the major currencies of the world economy, the growing list of which qualify as major liquid markets beginning with the "Major Eight" (USD, GBP, EUR, JPY, CHF, HKD, AUD, CAD), which are also called the "Benchmark Currencies", and expands to include several others by virtue of liquidity.

Currency hedging, like many other forms of financial hedging, can be done in two primary ways: with standardized contracts, or with customized contracts (also known as over-the-counter or OTC).

The financial investor may be a hedge fund that decides to invest in a company in, for example, Brazil, but does not want to necessarily invest in the Brazilian currency. The hedge fund can separate out the credit risk (i.e. the risk of the company defaulting), from the currency risk of the Brazilian Real by "hedging" out the currency risk. In effect, this means that the investment is effectively a USD investment, in Brazil. Hedging allows the investor to transfer the currency risk to someone else, who wants to take up a position in the currency. The hedge fund has to pay this other investor to take on the currency exposure, similar to insuring against other types of events.

As with other types of financial products, hedging may allow economic activity to take place that would otherwise not have been possible (as a loan, for example, may allow an individual to purchase a home that would be "too expensive" if the individual had to pay cash). The increased investment is assumed in this way to raise economic efficiency.
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Detailed analysis of correlation - EU/GU - 1 H - mataf.net

Correlation des devisesCorrelation des devises

The following charts give precise details on the correlation between two parities. They show the history and the distribution of the correlation over a given period. The use is relatively simple, you must give the two parities which you want to compare as well as the number of points to calculate the correlation.

The result is given with graphics representation of the hourly and daily correlation. The historical graph is in a traditional representation. The graphics of the distribution of the correlation are given with a polar plot whose reading is rather simple:
  • if all the points are grouped that means that the correlation is constant over the period. In this case if the points are on the left the correlation is negative, on the right the correlation is positive.
  • if all points are dispersed that means that the correlation is not constant in time, the index of correlation is not usable for trader, it is not significant.
In other chapters of Mataf.net you will be able to calculate the correlation of a pair compared to a basket of currencies and to see the complete table of the cross correlations.
READ MORE - Detailed analysis of correlation - EU/GU - 1 H - mataf.net

Correlation Pair Vs Market - mataf.net

Correlation des devisesCorrelation des devises


In this part you will be able to have a total sight of the correlation of a pair versus the market. You must select the parity you want to analyse then to give the number of points on which the correlation will be calculated and finally to select the basket of pairs.

The result is given with Radar plots representing the hourly and daily correlation. More the points are located outside more the correlation is strong. In the event of negative correlation you will see appearing a sign "-" in front of the name of the parity.

In other chapters of Mataf.net you will be able to calculate the cross correlation of a basket of currencies and to study more precisely the correlation between two parities.
READ MORE - Correlation Pair Vs Market - mataf.net

Correlation Table 1 D - Mataf.net

Correlation des devises

The following tables represent the correlation between the various parities of the foreign exchange market (forex).
The correlation coefficient highlights the similarity of the movements between two parities.

  • If the correlation is high (above 80) and positive then the currencies move in the same way.
  • If the correlation is high (above 80) and negative then the currencies move in the opposite way.
  • If the correlation is low (below 60) then the currencies don't move in the same way.

The correlation index are calculated on the daily and hourly data. In other chapters of Mataf.net you will be able also to calculate the correlation of a pair compared to a basket of currencies and to study more precisely the correlation between two parities.

READ MORE - Correlation Table 1 D - Mataf.net

Correlation Table 1 H - Mataf.net

Correlation des devises

The following tables represent the correlation between the various parities of the foreign exchange market (forex).

The correlation coefficient highlights the similarity of the movements between two parities.
  • If the correlation is high (above 80) and positive then the currencies move in the same way.
  • If the correlation is high (above 80) and negative then the currencies move in the opposite way.
  • If the correlation is low (below 60) then the currencies don't move in the same way.
The correlation index are calculated on the daily and hourly data. In other chapters of Mataf.net you will be able also to calculate the correlation of a pair compared to a basket of currencies and to study more precisely the correlation between two parities.
READ MORE - Correlation Table 1 H - Mataf.net

Hedge trading

The concept of hedge trading is simple enough. Market mavens estimate that most currency pairs move within defined ranges for approximately 80% of the time. When a breakout from such a range occurs, it tends to be sudden and sharp, the sort a trader wants to catch; however, for those who cannot sit and watch the market constantly, these can also be the moves that are easiest to miss, especially if one is asleep when the active London market opens at 8:00 AM GMT or one has misjudged the release of a particularly meaningful fundamental announcement.

It’s easy enough to set a market order at a pre-determined entry point and walk away from the computer; however, the value of that technique depends entirely upon the accuracy of one’s estimate of the market’s future direction, which of course in turn depends upon one’s proficiency in technical analysis and predicting a nation’s economic data prior to its release—not the easiest of tasks in recent months, as a well-known bank’s complete miscall of the RBNZ policy statement, released 5 June 2008, illustrates all too well.

Rather than depend upon a market forecast, no matter how carefully prepared, savvy forex traders prefer to hedge their bets and place two entry orders, one above and one below a currency pair’s trading range, and catch the market’s move whichever direction it goes.
Examine the following chart. This is the four-hour chart of the NZD/USD from late May and early June:
==========



Since 22 May, the NZD/USD has wavered between resistance at 0.7925 and support at 0.7764. With fundamentals roughly balanced—a slowdown in the U.S. versus a potential downturn in New Zealand—only a clear signal of a change in monetary policy from one of the two central banks in question was likely to break the deadlock any time soon.

It was possible, of course, to probe the fundamentals more deeply, to spend an hour analyzing the chart, or to entrust one’s money to the forecastof a trusted analyst; however, the only certain means of catching this breakout was to sit and watch the chart, or place hedge trades above and below the channel.

On the NZD/USD chart above, note that the lines delineating the range are drawn just beyond the extent of the heikin ashi within. When using hedge trades, it’s a good idea to draw one’s channel a bit roomier than normal, leaving room for unpredictable spikes that could penetrate the range, trigger an order, and then withdraw, losing money rather than making it. That remains a risk with any forex trade, of course, but it makes sense to give away a few pips and lower that risk.

Also, ensure that one’s broker offers the feature known as “order cancels order,” meaning that when one order is triggered, the other is automatically nullified. That way, one doesn’t have a loose trade floating about, waiting to be activated when it’s least desired, and often when one is not watching.
The NZD/USD, of course, fell off the table when the RBNZ’s policy statement turned out to be much more dovish than the market anticipated, and it’s still falling as this is written:















For those who weren’t watching their monitors at the moment the movement began, pre-arranged hedge trades would have garnered an easy hundred pips.
source : http://forextradings.com.au

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